The U.S cattle inventory will likely remain flat through the end of the decade and the days of fairly predictable cycles could be over, agribusiness financial services provider Rabobank said in a report on the U.S. beef industry.

The report noted that the last identifiable cycle for the U.S. beef cow herd occurred between 1981 and 1995. Since then, the beef cow herd has been declining, even as more beef has been produced through increased slaughter weights.

"It is now possible to argue that the traditional cattle cycle may have been permanently replaced. It would appear that significant changes in the beef cow herd during the cattle cycle are a trend of the past," the report said.

It predicted that any increase in production levels in 2008 will result from increased feeder and fed cattle imports from Canada and heavier carcass weights.

Factors discouraging ranchers from expanding their cow herds include:

• rising energy and feed costs
• uncertainty about export market access restrictions for U.S. beef
• an aging rancher population
• small producers exiting due to additional traceability requirements, rising production costs and barriers to entry
• competition for land from nontraditional uses such as urban sprawl and recreation
• weather events such as recent droughts in the Southeast and West

By Janie Gabbett on 2/7/2008 for Meatingplace.com