Tighter supplies of cattle will force beef production to decline in 2009, and pork production will decline due to reduced farrowings later this year and next year, USDA said Friday in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demands Estimates.

Beef production in 2009 is forecast at 26.5 billion pounds, compared with 26.8 billion pounds in 2008. Pork production in 2009 is forecast at 22.9 billion pounds, compared with 23.5 billion pounds in 2008. Total red meat production in 2009 is expected to reach 49.8 billion pounds, down from 50.6 billion pounds in 2008.

Total red meat exports are projected to decline to 5.87 billion pounds in 2009 from 5.96 billion pounds in 2008, as pork exports are to decline to 3.98 billion pounds from 4.31 billion pounds, "especially if China's domestic pork supply situation improves." That would offset the expected upswing in beef exports to 1.87 billion pounds from 1.64 billion pounds, owing to the reopening of South Korea's market.

Average prices for choice steers (Nebraska, direct, 1100-1300 lbs) were forecast to rise to $88 to $96 per hundredweight in 2009, from an estimated $89 to $93 per hundredweight in 2008.

Average prices for barrows and gilts (live equivalent 51-52 percent lean) were forecast to rise to $44 to $48 per hundredweight in 2009 from an estimated $43 to $45 in 2008. Lower meat supplies account for the price increases.

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By Tom Johnston on 5/12/2008 for Meatingplace.com