Beef imports this year continue to decline and could be significantly lower than current USDA forecasts, according to industry analysts.

USDA forecasts total beef imports in 2008 at 2.692 billion pounds, down nearly 12 percent from a year ago. However, beef imports January through May were down nearly 22 percent, meaning imports in the second half of the year would need nearly match year ago imports.

"That is not a reasonable assumption/estimate in our view," said livestock analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner in the Daily Livestock Report, issued by the CME Group.

The analysts said their own investigation of U.S. Customs data shows U.S. beef imports were down as much as 70 million pounds in the month of June.

They expect that downward trend to continue, given the following factors:

• the weak US dollar
• reduced beef production in Brazil
• the European Union sourcing beef elsewhere after banning most Brazilian beef
• reduced Argentine beef exports
• competition to import beef from Uruguay and Australia (top U.S. suppliers) by Russia as it looks for supplement Argentine beef imports.

The bottom line, said the analysts, is this: "Less beef imports mean further declines (U.S.) per capital beef consumption, and higher prices."

By Janie Gabbett on 7/21/2008